Automobile industry crisis in Russia: the brands we have lost

What's happened to car sales in Russia?

     It's an open secret that Russia's economy has been passing through the tough times since the sanctions were imposed and oil prices dropped. The overall decline of economy in 2015 is 3,6% (acc. to official stats). Russian currency devalued more than twice since the December, 2014. Weakened rouble affected the whole country: an inflation has risen above 10%, import of goods and services dropped dramatically. But what business suffered most? - Automobile industry.

       Car market in Russia was one of the most dynamic emerging markets in the world being in one row with markets of Brasil, China, India. But world economic crisis (2008) has changed the trend: in 2009 Russia experienced the harsh downturn of car sales. To support government automobile manufacturers, as well as international ones, ministry of economic development introduced subsidized loans for buying a new car. Interest rates became low - from 4 to 7% (the average interest rate for bank loans in Russia in 2010 exceeded 20%). This helped a lot: car sales started slightly to improve

        December, 2014 had been watershed moment: before the devaluation rouble which influenced on prices of automobiles, consumers caused booming demand making a purchase that they wouldn't do if russian currency was stable. The result was amazing: sales of automobiles in December, 2014 was the record reaching 280 000 cars per month. Among leaders of sales in 2014 were:

         After such increase, car market experienced its worst downturn since 2009. According to statistics, in 2015 sales in Russian Federation fell by 43% from previous year. But devil is in detail. Lada admitted drop of sales in 2015 (-46%), but at the same time Kia (having a budget car model - Rio) had a smaller decline (-9%), as well as Hyundai (-8%). Moreover, premium brands rose: Cadillac (+15%), Porsche (+2%). This dynamics show that wealthy people have no problems with buying a car: their income in still high enough to afford a luxury automobile, even despite of fact that the prices have doubled since the 2014. But middle-class moved straight to a poverty line, that's why the demand for budget vehicles fell down. The consequences were disappointing: some brands decided to halt sales and to wait until the situation improves.

Brands that we have lost

         Opel and Chevrolet. GM announced they would leave in March, 2015. Many experts consider this act as a sign of deepest crisis, if such a giant company leaves. Many car makers in Russia were ready for losses, but no one expected GM to be one of the first sacrifices. This has affected on job market: factories closed in St.Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Opel and Chevrolet now sell out their stocks and then will dispose of its headquarters in Russia. In 2014, market share of GM was above 7,6%. This means GM has reached significant presence in Russia and can afford itself to have two or more years without profits. There were some thoughts that this decision has a political background: some experts suggested that USA government has forced GM to cut economic ties with Russia. Nobody knows exact reason, but many agreed that it's cheaper for GM to stop sales of Opel and Chevrolet rather than to continue to work in Russia.

    Another brand which struggled from devaluation of rouble is Seat (the branch of Volkswagen Group). Spanish car manufacturer abandoned Russia even earlier than GM, in October, 2014. It can be curious that Seat left russian market for the 4th time. Hope they will return back soon.

   While Kia and Hyundai are doing well, another korean brand SsangYong claimed they will leave right away after GM announcement. This decision was hard to accept for company, which biggest market in 2014 was Russia.

       Nonetheless, there're plenty of others we'll be missing: american Chrysler and Dodge, taiwanese Luxgen, chinese Geely, Great Wall and JAC. 

      Those who stayed are desperately trying to optimize its expenses in order to save profitability. Only in 2015, 47 car models are no longer available for sale. Amongst them are Subaru Impreza, Skoda Roomster, Hyundai Genesis, Kia Cerato, Honda Accord, Pegeout 107, Mazda 5, Audi TT. 

The next outsiders are expected: Pegeuot and Renault sales dropper more than average in 2015.

Growth inspite of the overall decline

       As a consequence of high Gini coefficient (41.6) in Russia, luxury brands have note experienced any hardships. Moreover, their sales grew rapidly in 2015. Luxury cars (above 2 mln. rur.) sales risen by 95%. . The leaders are Mercedes-Maybach, Rolls-Royce (+40%), Lamborghini (+9%), Cadillac. Most of such cars were sold in Moscow and St.Petersburg. In January, 2016 Ford grew by 25%, as well Lifan (+63%) and Suzuki (+25%). But situation hasn't improved yet: crisis is still here.

Prospects for car industry in Russia

      After a collapse in car sales in 2015, 2016 is expected to have a slight recover. Experts claims by the end of this year, automobile market will rise by 3-4%. Because of volatility, this forecast is considered to be approximate. Some dealers of cars has not reflected on new decline of russian currency in the end of 2015. This means that prices will rise further and sales can drop. There are several scenarios:

• Neutral. Prices will rise by 20-30%. Sales will fall more by 5%. 
• Pessimistic. Prices will rise by 35-40%. Sales will drop by 10%. New brands are expected to leave. Among them are Peugeot, Renault, Subaru.

      As you can see, there's no optimistic scenario because no one believes that sales will grow.
Russian authorities promise to spend more than 50 billion roubles of transfers in order to support the market (it should be used as subsidiaries for bank loans and direct support for russian car
manufacturer "Lada"). 
                                                  Since sales of new cars has been insufficient for growth, market of used cars felt only by 20% in 2015 (new cars sales felt by 43%). It's a sign that consumers demand moved towards used cars. In 2016, market of used cars will rise by 10%. Customers are intended to save their money and their choice became more rational. All the statistics shows that russian automobile market will recover only in 2017.

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Uber versus government. What will win?

What is Uber?

Being founded in 2009, after 6 years of expansion, Uber application has become one of the major world taxi providers. The principal distinction from traditional taxi drivers and taxi companies is that Uber mobile app allows consumers with smartphones to submit a trip request which is then transfers to Uber drivers who use their own cars. So we see that this service has no mediator between client and taxi driver. All of money is processed through credit cards avoiding use of cash.
This scheme is set to automatically take charge for every trip an uber driver has accomplished. Uber is regulating its pricing automatically considering all the aspects of territory. Price depends on time, season, traffic jams and even weather (when it was a snowstorm in New York in January 2013, the price for 1 trip goes up to $200). This means that Uber is trying to sit on two chairs: from one point it wants to help drivers to earn more money; from another point Uber is set to be a taxi discounter with the lowest prices in the region of presence.
According to the last statistics of CNN, by Feb. 2016 Uber:

1. Capitalisation is $51 bln.
2. Just 6 years old
3. Uber has tested delivery of Christmas trees, food, pets by cars
4. Median annual income of Uber driver in San Francisco is more than $74.000
5. Uber uses not just cars: you can call for a boat in Amsterdam,a helicopter in New York (damn, I want this feature to be available in Moscow), an yacht in San Francisco
6. It employs Surge Pricing scheme

        Originally from USA, Uber in 2015 covered almost half of the world (look at a map above, red colour marks Uber's coverage).
        In February 2016 Uber has changed its logo causing outrage throughout the Internet. Even CNN said that its new logo is not as conceptual as ugly and mislead users (in fact, marketing books advice to change logo step by step, not totally like Uber Inc. did).    

Uber in Europe

The first country being chosen by Uber for the start in Europe was France. In December 2011 app was launched in Paris. Then it spreads all over Europe step by step. Among the cities where Uber was working were Brussels, Amsterdam, Geneve, Oslo, Praha, Rome, London, Lisboa and other capitals of Europe as well as other major cities. 
Traditional cab drivers hate Uber for its pricing strategy, because when Uber hits the city, drivers are forced to decrease their prices in order to stay competitive in comparison with Uber tariffs. Moreover, the prices after decrease become low too for to earn enough for living. That causes many protests in european cities demanding from government to ban Uber. The biggest protests stopped major highways of Paris, London, Madrid, Barcelona, Berlin and paralyzed traffic. Courtney Love Cobain has passed through protesters in Paris. That's what she said: 

   The voice of protesters was heard and governments started to crack down on app. For example, it was revealed that Uber used tax evasion schemes: 

The Guardian: Taxi associations claim Uber routes its payments through headquarters in the Netherlands to minimise its corporation tax payments in France, the UK and Germany – in a similar manner to Apple and Starbucks, which have found themselves in the firing line for the practice.

The results of such investigations and protests is well-known: Uber was banned in many cities. On February, 2016, according to Wikipedia, UberPop app (which is known for its hiring people without licence) stopped its activity and lost legal status in Brussels, Berlin, Frankfurt. It was banned on the whole territory of Italy, Romania, Bulgaria.
Only in US Uber has faced more than 179 lawsuits by the end of 2015. Uber expansion toughens as many countries are trying to expel it. Being backed by Google (its largest investor is Google), Uber is no more afraid of prosecution and in spite of the pressure in Europe and US is set to grow by covering more cities (by the end of January, 2016 it covers 378). 

                                         Uber in Russia

In June, 2013 app was launched in two major cities of Russian Federation: Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Then it spreads to Rostov-on-Don, Sochi, Kazan, Yekaterinburg. As taxi industry is slightly regulated in Russia, Uber has gained power and popularity. But in 2015, european scenario recurred in Moscow: there were protests demanding to ban Uber. The situation is the same: licensed drivers can't compete with Uber illegal drivers. 
        Moscow authorities announced an ultimatum: Uber Inc. must sign an agreement with government confirming that corporation is ready to share with government its cars' activity on the roads of the russian capital and also making a promise to employ only drivers with licence. Otherwise its activity will be halt in 1 month. Such agreement has already signed other taxi apps: Yandex.Taxi and Gett(former Get Taxi). But Uber is not intended to sigh an agreement soon: it emphasises that corporation operates in more than 68 countries and signing the documents is a long procedure. But there's no other way: Uber will arrange with Moscow authorities. And then it will continue battle for the market share in Russia and nothing can stop it.

Uber wins.

Uber is changing taxi market: traditional cab drivers will be ousted and will work under the taxi aggregators like Uber, Yandex.Taxi, Get Taxi and others in near future. This tendency outlined in 2010 since the first launch of such aggregators. Uber relies on technologies and traditional drivers can't compete with it: the corporation is investing huge amount of money on research and its strategy is aimed to get rid of "common" chauffeurs. If Uber will accept the demand of governments all over the world to tighten its policy and hire only licensed drivers, the major problem will be solved. Being a rich company, Uber can afford to pay millions for lawyers and lobbyists in order to protect business. Only in US, company has hired at least 161 people to lobby for its interests. In Sacramento alone, Uber spent $475,000 over five months to influence California lawmakers. In October, 2015, Uber wins court case in London. 

The Verge reports that Uber is successful at using public support and in June, 2014 has shut down one state regulator within 48 hours:

The Verge: Uber used common political advocacy tactics to generate public support for its business.  It was able to provoke hundreds of people in Virginia to complain to the Department of Motor Vehicles commissioner responsible for shutting its business down. Then, it sent its team of lobbyists to meet with aides of Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe. Within 48 hours, Virginia's transportation secretary told the DMV to leave Uber drivers alone — meaning the company was successfully able to leapfrog regulators.

         Anyway, the new era of taxi has come and I'm confident that Uber is more likely to survive in this competition because of its advantages: data-driven business, credit cards for payment, many drivers and cheap prices help the company to stay competitive. Traditional cab driver now should choose whether to switch to Uber or to be ready for unemployment.

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