G7: Anti-russian rhetoric continues

    On the 26th of May 2016 the two-day annual G7 summit has taken place in Japan. Among the attendants there were the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, UK, USA, Canada and Japan. All these countries imposed economic sanctions in 2014 when the Crimea had been annexed. Russia was suspended from the then G8 in March 2014 over the annexation of Crimea.

      Some political analysts critisized G7 for their stance in terms of Russia. They emphasised that the dialogue needs to be continued in order to maintain the partnership in political, economic spheres. And this has happened: after 2 years the G7 leaders admit the importance of cooperation with Russia, but they aslo agreed to keep the sanctions until the Minsk peace agreement will be fully implemented. What does this joint statement means in the long-run?

Russia-Japan

          Let's first look at the Russia-Japan relations. Japan started to normalise the relationship with Russia. But what's the reason? The reason is the China's influence on Russian political and economical views can hurt Japan. Being one the major economical partners for Russia, China has taken advantage of bad relationship of  Russia and Japan. Now, Japan wants to take back what it's lost. Shinzo Abe has visited Russia and now waiting for Putin to come in near future. The main goal for Japan is to solve the Kuril islands dispute. A bargain for Russia will be the perspective of lifting the sanctions. The possibility of giving the russian islands to Japan is very high now.

Russia-Germany

Ties between the leading country of Europe and Russia has worsened much since the 2014. Being one of the major partners in 2012, Germany experienced the severe decline in trade with Russia:

"Compared with the record year in 2012, German exports to Russia have fallen by nearly half in the past three years from 38 billion euros ($42 billion) to 21 billion euros"

    But Angela Merkel is convinced that imposed sanction should be kept until the Moscow will implement the Minsk Peace Agreement. On the other hand, a new interview with  Germany's foreing minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was in April 2016 named "Time to talk". This is the most interesting exerpt:

Don’t we have to get Russia involved again on the international stage?

We couldn’t ignore their flagrant infringement of international law and just proceed with business as usual. But for me the question of getting Russia involved and entering into dialogue is a matter of principle – not situational. I am absolutely convinced that, especially in difficult situations, you cannot play the isolationist card. Recent history does not provide many examples of isolationism and exclusion helping to bring about a political solution.

 We can see, that something will change soon. Germany is tired of isolation of Russia.

Sanctions will be prolonged in June

No matter what happens between Russian and other countries, G7 stays united in the question of sanctions. This is the joint G7 statement:

“We recognize the importance of maintaining dialogue with Russia in order to ensure it abides by the commitments it has made as well as international law and to reach a comprehensive, sustainable and peaceful solution to the crisis,” the declaration said. “ However, we also stand ready to take further restrictive measures in order to increase cost on Russia should its actions so require.”

As we see, G7 warns Russia to impose new restrictive measures  in order to achieve the success of Minsk agreements. But this will not happen, I guess. Within the EU some countries like Hungary, Italy, Greece are against, but their voices will not be heard until the majority of EU countries will stand against sanctions.

Russia is not discouraged

         Today, on 27 of May, Russian PM Medvedev gives orders to prepare to extend food embargo to end-2017. This will help the russian agrarians to plan their investments in a long-term perspective, he says.  Does that mean that even inspite of lifting sanctions by EU countries, Russia will not dismiss its food embargo? If so, we can expect sanctions to be in place until the 2017. At the same time, I guess the G8 will be revived soon, because the willingness to have a dialogue with Russia is a common stance for all countries within G7, except UK and Canada.

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A nightmare for women in Cologne, Germany

         As Russian TV channels are broadly observing the situation in Cologne, Germany, russian people are deeply concerned by the behaviour of men tried to abuse german women on New Year's Eve. It's seems like the nightmare when you're out in street celebrating and then someone surround you in attempt to stole you mobile phone and even rape you.

        The boiling point is that the most of those attacking women were migrants waiting for permission from the state allowing them to live in Germany. That produced much anger within the german society and around the Europe as well. Such accident in Cologne took out people into the streets demanding stricter laws for immigrants forcing Angela Merkel to express her own opinion on such mass protest.
And she commented: 

"When crimes are committed, and people place themselves outside the law... there must be consequences," she told reporters after the meeting.

Under current German laws, asylum seekers are only forcibly sent back if they have been sentenced to at least three years' imprisonment, and providing their lives are not at risk in their countries of origin. Now Bundestag will consider to sent migrant back for any violation of law.

          I'm afraid that such incedent like in Colongue can deepen society division regarding immigration policy. And as new wave of anger PEGIDA has held a new protests which seems to be massive. Gestures of people in this crowd doesn't look very friendly toward the counterparts protesting against PEGIDA.
 To express my own thoughts I should say that such violations like on New Year's Eve should be considered not as a mistake of refugee policy but as a mistake of policy office in Cologne. Protection of people was insufficient. There should be more policemen managing the order in the streets. At the same time Merkel should make the law stricter for refugees violating the law. They must be sent to their places of origin. And german government should promote law restrictions for refugees because the perception of woman's nature in Arabic countries and in Europe is much different. I know that Merkel will satisfy the society by stricting laws. But will that prevent migrants from violations? I guess no. Because if they have nothing - they have nothing to lose. And it's a very dangerous situation. Germany should concentrate its efforts on assimilation of refugees giving them job and a place to live. Only then migrants will appriciate the hospitality of Bundestag. 

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