On the 26th of May 2016 the two-day annual G7 summit has taken place in Japan. Among the attendants there were the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, UK, USA, Canada and Japan. All these countries imposed economic sanctions in 2014 when the Crimea had been annexed. Russia was suspended from the then G8 in March 2014 over the annexation of Crimea.
Some political analysts critisized G7 for their stance in terms of Russia. They emphasised that the dialogue needs to be continued in order to maintain the partnership in political, economic spheres. And this has happened: after 2 years the G7 leaders admit the importance of cooperation with Russia, but they aslo agreed to keep the sanctions until the Minsk peace agreement will be fully implemented. What does this joint statement means in the long-run?
Russia-Japan
Let's first look at the Russia-Japan relations. Japan started to normalise the relationship with Russia. But what's the reason? The reason is the China's influence on Russian political and economical views can hurt Japan. Being one the major economical partners for Russia, China has taken advantage of bad relationship of Russia and Japan. Now, Japan wants to take back what it's lost. Shinzo Abe has visited Russia and now waiting for Putin to come in near future. The main goal for Japan is to solve the Kuril islands dispute. A bargain for Russia will be the perspective of lifting the sanctions. The possibility of giving the russian islands to Japan is very high now.
Russia-Germany
Ties between the leading country of Europe and Russia has worsened much since the 2014. Being one of the major partners in 2012, Germany experienced the severe decline in trade with Russia:
"Compared with the record year in 2012, German exports to Russia have fallen by nearly half in the past three years from 38 billion euros ($42 billion) to 21 billion euros"But Angela Merkel is convinced that imposed sanction should be kept until the Moscow will implement the Minsk Peace Agreement. On the other hand, a new interview with Germany's foreing minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was in April 2016 named "Time to talk". This is the most interesting exerpt:
We can see, that something will change soon. Germany is tired of isolation of Russia.Don’t we have to get Russia involved again on the international stage?We couldn’t ignore their flagrant infringement of international law and just proceed with business as usual. But for me the question of getting Russia involved and entering into dialogue is a matter of principle – not situational. I am absolutely convinced that, especially in difficult situations, you cannot play the isolationist card. Recent history does not provide many examples of isolationism and exclusion helping to bring about a political solution.
Sanctions will be prolonged in June
No matter what happens between Russian and other countries, G7 stays united in the question of sanctions. This is the joint G7 statement:
“We recognize the importance of maintaining dialogue with Russia in order to ensure it abides by the commitments it has made as well as international law and to reach a comprehensive, sustainable and peaceful solution to the crisis,” the declaration said. “ However, we also stand ready to take further restrictive measures in order to increase cost on Russia should its actions so require.”As we see, G7 warns Russia to impose new restrictive measures in order to achieve the success of Minsk agreements. But this will not happen, I guess. Within the EU some countries like Hungary, Italy, Greece are against, but their voices will not be heard until the majority of EU countries will stand against sanctions.
Russia is not discouraged
Today, on 27 of May, Russian PM Medvedev gives orders to prepare to extend food embargo to end-2017. This will help the russian agrarians to plan their investments in a long-term perspective, he says. Does that mean that even inspite of lifting sanctions by EU countries, Russia will not dismiss its food embargo? If so, we can expect sanctions to be in place until the 2017. At the same time, I guess the G8 will be revived soon, because the willingness to have a dialogue with Russia is a common stance for all countries within G7, except UK and Canada.
